DAY 2, SO WHO IS IN THE FIRING LINE?
So who is in the firing line ? Let’s have a look. I saw this on the web last evening. Minimum percentage of the vote Alba needs to win a list seat, and who it damages: this is based on the last Scottish General Election in 2016. Central Scotland : 5.8% (Lab) Glasgow: 5.9% (Grn)Continue reading "DAY 2, SO WHO IS IN THE FIRING LINE?"
So who is in the firing line ?
Let’s have a look. I saw this on the web last evening.
Minimum percentage of the vote Alba needs to win a list seat, and who it damages: this is based on the last Scottish General Election in 2016.
Central Scotland : 5.8% (Lab)
Glasgow: 5.9% (Grn)
Highlands: 5.5% (LDem)
Lothian: 6.6% (Lab)
Mid Scot & Fife: 6.0% (Con)
North East Scotland : 6.2% (Grn)
South Scotland : 5.4% (SNP)
West of Scotland : 5.3% (Lab)
So 5 unionists taken out in the first wave, two Greens, one SNP, the SNP member quite possibly not there anyway because of the improved constituency polling on the last election.
So at worst we would be talking about five more pro Indy members and a loss of five unionists. So a turnaround of ten MSP’s in any vote for Independence. Even better a second wave could only result in even more Unionist losses. Now it must be remembered it is not just the Unionist MSP’s that disappears it is their office and their staff as well in most cases. It weakens the Unionist infrastructure in these areas, conversely it strengthens the pro Indy forces and infrastructure.
This is how victory is secured by weakening your opponent while building up the skills, knowledge and experience of our own team
So while it easy to see why the Unionists are not keen on ALBA arriving ON THE SCENE, it’s also true the SNP are not keen on the development either. Much easier for them dealing with a Unionist Opponent than dealing with a competent pro Indy MSP who is more active, more able, more determined and still holding onto the driving determination the SNP member may have shared when they were initially an idealist victor but which “experience” has exhausted and decayed over the years. Being led up the hill only to be led down again time after time is dispiriting. The fight has been knocked out of them and no amount of new mandates or waiting for a futile S30 order sets up the situation where they only challenge and oppose their leader and direction in secret.
Great news about AFI standing down their candidates in favour of Alba. I am confident that we will see more big news coming from various quarters in the days ahead. Of course it is important to find and promote new talent but it helps if there are also a few old heads that have been round the block a few times and are capable of dealing with those whose idea of politics is still at nursery level, where name calling and smearing is the only tactic they are capable of. Sadly there was a lot of that yesterday but it is not normal to see a cabinet secretary similarly involved. Rather demeaned his office, but he had previous on that as well. Let hope tempers cool as the shock lessens. Justice Ministers who criticise after jury trials have found the person they are smearing innocent is not really an acceptable look but hey Ho that is they way it now goes in the Woo Woo world of the SNP.
All in all it was a very good day for Alba, the reports I am hearing is that both new members and donations are soaring. It is already well past the level of membership the SNP had when I was active in the 1990’s. All achieved in one day! It is all very positive, while the opposition smear I hope Alex’s lawyers are busy taking down the details of all those so engaged. They desperately smear without any evidence and in the process debase politics and themselves. You always know they are rattled when the age old “it’s his ego” gets top billing. In political real speak it means “we have got nothing else”. They are in trouble already. The words “supermajority” and “Let’s get Indy done” strikes fear in their hearts from the off!
I am, as always
Yours for Scotland.
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