SCOTLAND’S LOST OPPORTUNITY?

This is a guest article by Steve Daley. I asked him for some background, he replied as follows..I am  Steve Daley,  I am from Stirling. Former  SNP activist, currently an Alba member. Previously wrote a few articles for Common Space. I am a politics graduate who was native English teacher in Spain for 2 years. Currently looking to teach social sciences at home or abroad. Interested in travelling, mindfulness and stoicism. 

Scotland’s lost opportunity 

What is happening in Ukraine is awful but I will refrain from giving an opinion on here, there are already millions of opinions online on the matter from both sides and no sides. I adding yet another take like the vast majority online and in print will not make a blind bit of difference to the people there.

What the Russian Ukraine crisis has highlighted is the importance of energy, more specifically the importance of energy independence. As we are seeing in Germany and other European countries who get between 30/40 % of their oil and gas from Russia, are about to pay a high price both politically and economically in terms of higher energy and fuel bills for getting involved in a geopolitical matter.

Even in the UK where we rely much less on Russian Gas are expected to see energy prices soar above the already high prices expected in April. Despite relying far less on Russian gas, in terms of our oil imports from abroad, Russia is the third largest just after Norway and the US respectively.

With this in mind and the fact the world will still be relying on oil and gas for decades to come, it is madness that the Cambo oil field has been paused. 

Whatever wonders one thinks of renewable energy the storage capacity is not there and at best right now it is a supplement to oil and gas and not a replacement. I have no doubt and very much hope renewable technology particular the storages capacity of wind will develop and renewable energy will become more reliable, but we are not there yet and we need to live in the real world. I know many will disagree.

But back to Cambo due to pressure from COP26 and wanting to be popular, the selfie queen came out against it, as did the UK government. The pressure from the green lobby also saw Shell pull out as a partner, leaving the other partner private equity firm Siccar to pause the project.

 But the current crisis has woken some up to the real world and the importance of energy independence, with even one of the few sane voices in the Scottish government such as Fergus Ewing raising the issue about oil exploration in the North Sea, the crisis has also created questions such as if Germany and others try to wean themselves off Russian gas and oil, where will they get their replacement?

This is why Cambo must get the go-ahead, but it gets better still, that pause due to Shell pulling out may just be a blessing, you see due to the green pressure most of the big oil firms have been moving out of the North Sea, so there is an opportunity for the government to be the partner which would see the country become an active partner just like sensible Norway, where we do not just get the profits but have a share in a sought after resource.

Ah, but which government?

Could the Scottish government (sadly still a devolved council due to gutless Sturgeon) become a partner even a small one? Legally as a devolved gov, I do not know, but others will, but if it did, where would they get the capital? The Scottish National Investment bank like most policies under the Sturgeon regime is not worth the paper it is written on so that, for now, seems unlikely. Plus as we have seen with the selling off of green assets Sturgeon likes to privatise anything of value in Scotland, so any bid to become a partner by the Scottish government  seems unlikely. 

What about the UK government?

I am no unionist but if the UK government was smart ( big if) they would become a partner overnight, just think about it, it would make the UK government more energy independent, give it a stake in a huge oil field, gain profits by selling oil to Europe, cheaper energy for UK citizens which could help with the cost of living and Boris Johnsons approval ratings. The long term win from a UK government perspective, however, would be should Scotland ever be Independent The UK gov would have a huge stake in a huge Scottish oil field.

But for good and bad the UK government is not smart

And with no bold Scottish government (unless by bold meaning redefining sex)

Scotland again loses.

So where does that leave us?

Well at best and I stress best if the Scottish government can legally become a partner in Cambo (even a small one), then Alba and the few sane people left in the Scottish Government may be worth lobbying to try and make that happen.

But to finish with the crisis in the East, there is more chance of peace between Russia and Ukraine this afternoon than there is of Scotland getting a good deal with energy and having a true stake in its resources.

MY COMMENTS

My thanks to Steve for this article. There is no doubt that events in Ukraine is leading to a major review of energy suppliers. Being less reliant on Russian energy is now a top priority for many nations so I fully expect a review of Cambo will already be underway.

I am, as always

YOURS FOR SCOTLAND

BEAT THE CENSORS

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