DID THE SNP DO SOMETHING RIGHT? MIA SPELLS OUT HER VIEW.

“Did the SNP just do something right?”

I am not convinced even one bit that they have, nor that this is not another delay strategy and more smoke and mirrors. For example:

1. The question is : “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
What does independence mean in this context and what route is she hoping to follow to reach that independence? The route where Scotland is demoted to the status of Wales and is seeking to secede from the UK so the Uk gov and parliament retain all control over the process, the timeframe and the assets and will send us packing with the bare minimum?
In other words, what does a yes vote lead to, the termination of the treaty or some kind of undefined limbo where we (and our assets) remain at the mercy of Westminster for an undetermined number of years to come?

2. She hopes for the vote to be on 19 October 2023. Wonderful. So what happens after a yes vote? When does Scotland become independent? What kind of timeframe does she have in mind? Does she have any timeframe in mind or her ultimately goal is simply delivering a yes vote and then let Westminster deal with it in the way they see fit?

3. She says the referendum is “consultative”. Excellent. What does this mean in practical terms? Does this mean she might just choose to do the same she did with our 2016 mandate for indyref, to let it expire? Does it mean the yes vote might not be taken forward because Westminster says so?

4. The EU ref was “consultative” as well. The group leave got away with breaking the law and yet the courts ruled the referendum did not need to be re-run because it was “consultative” therefore the government and parliament did not have the obligation to implement it. Is making the referendum “consultative” opening extra doors for the apparatus of the British state to stick its sticky hands and manipulate the campaign and our process at leisure?

5. Nicola Sturgeon mentioned that if the referendum is blocked the SNP will be running on the next GE on the single question “Should Scotland be an independent country?”. We know the key to end this treaty of union lies on the hands of our MPs, just as it has done for the last 300 years. But she is being super careful to avoid mentioning the repealing of the treaty of union by the MPs. If her intention was to include the bit of the general election as a shot across the bows to signify to Westminster that if they don’t concede on the referendum she would follow a more drastic path, then she should have gone the full length and said openly that in absence of a referendum, the next option is to withdraw our MPs from Westminster, reconvene Scotland’s old parliament and repeal treaty of Union and the and Act of union with England. Why didn’t she mention it? Is it because it was only a nice sounding platitude with no intention to be used, but to give the false impression that a real plebiscite election is in her cards? 

6. In the event of having to go to a GE as a plebiscite, what would determine a yes vote, a majority of SNP MPs or them holding the majority of the vote? And what if we deliver a majority of SNP Mps but not a majority of the vote? Does this mean the SNP continues with its union business as usual? Couldn’t this be interpreted as a strategy to ensure the SNP gets a majority?

7. In the event of having to go to a GE as a plebiscite and obtaining a yes vote in such a general election, what would that vote mean? What would SNP MPs do to deliver independence? Continue to beg for recognition by Westminster or would they finally grow the backbone to withdraw from Westminster, reconvene the old Scottish parliament and terminate the treaty?

8. There is a GE in the horizon. What happens if Johnson or the Tories take the rug from under her feet and call a GE before the 19th October and then the English court rules that Holyrood does not have power to call that referendum? What is the plan in that scenario? Continue with the begging for an S30 or directly delay the whole thing to 2026 and beyond?

9. The results from the census 2022 have not been released yet. We now know the Scottish natives voted for independence in 2014 but their vote was frustrated by settlers. What is Nicola Sturgeon going to do to ensure the yes vote from natives and therefore their self-determination is not frustrated by settlers again? Can you even say this referendum is an exercise in self-determination if you are knowingly using a franchise that will frustrate their attempt to self-determine?

10. What about the other loopholes that can be abused by the British state to frustrate a yes vote? Is she going to leave them wide open so they British State can abuse them again?

11. What is she going to do about the UK gov propaganda mouthpiece the BBC?

12. How is she going to stop UK civil servants breaking their code of conduct “to save the union” as many did in 2014?

13. How do we know this move has not been just an strategy by the British state establishment via Nicola Sturgeon (and her handlers) to remove from us the opportunity to use a General Election to issue a mandate to terminate the treaty of union? .
There is far too much uncertainty and vagueness here. It seems more like an appeasing strategy rather than an effective, carefully calculated one. It definitely gives a disproportionate weight to the route where Scotland has to demote itself to the status of a region of Greater England so the referendum can take place under the umbrella of devolution instead of effecting Scotland’s legitimate right to unilaterally ending the treaty.

She did not convince me at all to get behind this referendum, particularly with the absence of a timeframe, lack of detail of how she expects to actually deliver independence and of course with all the loopholes present in 2014 still being wide open today, particularly now that the “consultative” nature of the referendum will be opening a whole set of extra ones.

I would be more trusting had she been more forceful regarding the plebiscite and stating clearly that a majority of SNP MPs would lead the unilateral revoking of the treaty of union. Westminster only has to shift up a couple of hundreds of thousands postal votes to Scotland to ensure the SNP does not get over 50% of the vote. This will be easy now that we don’t have yet a census to refer to.

MY COMMENTS

As I certainly expected Mia has raised a number of very good points that require urgent clarification from the SNP if they hope to win back trust and respect. Everyone agrees unity within the Yes Movement is vital. This puts a huge responsibility on the SNP leadership to be open and honest in what they propose. They could start by clearing up a lot of the legitimate questions Mia has raised in her article. We are all ears for the answers.

I am, as always

YOURS FOR SCOTLAND

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