MIA DISCUSSES OPTIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE.

“It really depends what you mean by a majority”

A majority of MP seats is a majority. The UK is a parliamentary democracy, ergo a majority of the seats is all the majority you will ever need to end the treaty of union. Sinn Fein declared independence of Ireland on a majority of the seats, not on the majority of the vote. And guess what? you don’t even need that all the seats are from the same party. All what you need is a majority of the seats being held by pro indy parties.

Here is a link to what Ruth Davidson had to say in 2011

“I think you go to have a look at what means to be winning. We do have clearly set out between the parties whether they support independence for Scotland or whether they don’t. You don’t get a referendum for free, you have to earn it. So if the Greens and the SNP and the SSP or any of the other parties who declare an interest in independence get over the line and can make a coalition can make a majority, get the votes in the parliament, then they will vote through a referendum. That is what democracy is all about”

So, what exactly changed in 2015? Why is the union still standing today? It is standing today because Sturgeon removed the wheels from the SNP by claiming a vote for the SNP was not a vote for independence. Sturgeon’s SNP is not a pro independence party.

“Certainly the SNP won seat majorities in the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections, and in the 2011 and 2021 Scottish elections, the latter with the Greens. But they’ve never won a majority of the people”

And? I invite you to read again what DAvidson said in 2007. A majority of the seats in parliament for pro-indy parties is all what was ever needed, not a majority of the vote.

In 2015 there was already more than 50% of the vote for pro independence parties. If we are not independent today is because Sturgeon did not want to and the SNP refused to hold her feet to the fire. We have been betrayed.

“I’m a believer in the will of the people being judged by how they actually voted, not how these votes were subsequently converted into seats through whatever electoral system had to apply at the time”

It does not matter what you are a believer of or not. What matters here is that the UK is a parliamentary democracy and therefore what determines the mandate to end the union is the number of seats, not the number of votes or what one individual or another believes in or wants to see.

Sturgeon’s SNP has had 3 absolute majorities in Westminster. With each of the three it could have ended the treaty of union, but they refused to do so hiding behind one excuse or another. The only conclusion one can take from this is that the SNP under Sturgeon is no longer a party of independence and is using our votes to preserve the union.

“Basically, if we want the world to recognise our right to independence, we first and foremost have to show that a majority of people living here want it”

Nope. We don’t need the world to recognise anything. What we need is our pro indy Mps to end the treaty of union. It is an international treaty that has been breached countless of times since its inception. Besides, there have been material changes of circumstances enough to stop the earth spinning. Material changes of circumstances and breaches of the articles of the treaty are all what the world needs to know as to the reason to end the treaty. because those are recognised in the Vienna Convention as valid reasons to terminate a treaty.

In the same way that a majority of Scots did not vote to enter the treaty in the 1706, a majority of Scots is not needed to end it today. In any case, a majority of Scots already voted for independence in 2014. It was the non natives who frustrated the yes vote.

There have always been two routes for Scotland’s independence:

Route 1.
Scotland acts as one of the two signatories of the Treaty of union and exercises its legitimate right to unilaterally terminate the treaty and in doing so automatically terminates the legitimacy of Westminster to continue acting as the UK parliament. In other words, under this route, there need of a referendum and an S30 are a mere fabrication and tools to delay independence.

To end the treaty you need one of the following

a) proof that the fundamental principles of the treaty have been breached, or
b) proof that our partner has acted in bad faith, or
c) a material change in circumstances 

We have all three.

How could you end the union through this route?

1. Exactly as Sinn Fein did: you get a majority of pro indy MPs in a general election that then refuse to swear allegiance to the queen and refuse to take their seats in Westminster and instead they form a parliament in Scotland. If I am not mistaken, in line with the treaty of union there is a requirement for 45 MPs from Scotland to be in parliament. If there are not enough MPs, then the election must take place again or the treaty ends.

2. You get a majority of pro-indy MPs and get them to vote to end the treaty. Eight years have shown to us that this route does not work because MPs who swear allegiance to the Queen can not be trusted to represent the people of Scotland fairly.

Route 2.
Scotland ignores the treaty and the fact it is a constituent part of the UK that can simply terminate the UK and the sovereignty of Westminster. In other words, it demotes itself to the status of Catalonia, as if it was a region trying to secede from the United Kingdom of Great Britain rather than dissolving it and its parliament as it is its legitimate right to do.

This route assumes WEstminster’s sovereignty and therefore the need to request “permission” from WEstminster. to secede This route clearly tries to preserve the permanence of Westminster as the UK parliament after Scotland has seceded and therefore automatically acknowledges the Kingdom of England as the UK successor state.

I am convinced this is the route the political fraud is forcing us to take.

In my view both routes have disadvantages:

Route 1
Scotland needs to be prepared in every aspect to act as an independent country from day 1, and that includes the currency.
Scotland needs to assume part of the UK debt because the UK will cease to exist
we don’t know what happens with the trade deals This route may leave Scotland and the Kingdom of England without trade deals. Scotland needs to have something already in place, like membership of EFTA or EU single market, ready to jump in as soon as ending the treaty.
Unless there is a successor state, the NATO and UN seats will be lost.

Route 2
Scotland is totally at the mercy of Westminster. They may impose conditions, like for example to retain the area where Trident is, to retain some of our oil fields, or for Scotland never enter the EU again, or something to do with the standards and the ability of England to continue flooding our market with its products.

The UK establishes the rules of negotiation
The Uk establishes the rules of vote, for example in a referendum and the conditions to grant independence
As the Kingdom of England becomes automatically the successor state, all the assets of the UK are automatically UK’s, and that may include for example the embassies, the NATO and UN seats. In other words, we have to take the crumbs we are given.
We also don’t know if Scotland may be obliged to continue with treaties/trade deals it entered as the UK.

In my view both routes have advantages

Route 1
Scotland takes control of the timeline of independence
Scotland automatically takes control of all its natural assets and territory and borders
Scotland sets up the rules of negotiation
Scotland has a shot at being the successor state.
Embassies, agencies, the Bank of England, civil service, NATO and UN seats, tax havens and military equipment for example are all common assets to be divided between Scotland and the Kingdom of England.

Route 2
Scotland will not need to take on any of the debt.
the UK must ensure Scotland has the required infrastructure to act as an independent state on day one of independence. The problem is that the time line of this is not determined by Scotland but by Westmintster., meaning it could take decades until the UK deems our infrastructure is ready. By then they could have already exhausted our assets. Also, all the infrastructure will be established to benefit the Uk and UK partners, not the Scottish people.

In my personal opinion, the route Scotland needs to take is Route 1 and should have taken this route in 2015. Sturgeon either is taking us away from independence and into the deception of FFA or she is forcing us to take Route 2. This would explain her embracing of Westminster’s sovereignty, her handing of Scotland’s assets, her insistence on an S30, her allowing Scotland to be entered into toxic treaties, her allowing our standards to be decreased and the gerrymandering of our policies to separate us from the EU policies making it very difficult of us to get back.

“Personally I think we’d have a better chance with a referendum than a plebiscite election”

I couldn’t disagree more. A referendum implies following route 2, meaning Westminster sets up all the rules, like the franchise and the electoral commission that determines the question in the ballot. Under the present franchise there is nothing stopping Westminster sending a couple of hundred thousand union activisits to vote in Scotland and frustrate the yes vote, just as it happened in 2014.

A plebiscite election however implies folloiwng route 1, where the only thing that is needed to end the treaty is a majority of pro indy MPs who are prepared to refuse allegiance to the Queen and to refuse taking their seats. With a plebiscite election Scotland controls the timeline and the rules. With a plebiscite election you do not need a majority of the vote that Westminter will always ensure we will not get. The only thing the parties need is to include it in the manifesto and then get a majority of the seats.

It is not only that the plebiscite election is the best route. In my opinion, it is the only route and one that has already been tested by Sinn Fein and proven to be adequate.

Sturgeon’s referendum unicorn has already wasted us 8 precious years. and a hell of a lot of money. How much money was extracted from Scotland’s oil and gas fields and renewable energy infrastructure in the last 8 years? How much of England’s debt has Scotland been paying? How much renewable energy has Scotland put into the grid and got not a penny for? How much extra money has Scotlnad being forced to pay for putting energy on the grid compared with England?

That is money the SnP has wasted us with their obstinate and unforgivable inaction.

MY COMMENTS

As we enter a period of electoral activity all the signs are there. The SNP are falling over themselves to talk about Independence. The Nicola can do no wrong Messiah band are oozing loyalty from every pore. Never mind what has gone before, don’t mention GRA, who cares about ferries and around £500 million squandered…so far! No everything is going great and we have a strong message to unite the YES MOVEMENT.

Except you must vote SNP 1 and 2 AND you must under no circumstances vote for any other Party other than the SNP. All that is missing is we want you to help elect Unionist councillors because make no mistake that is EXACTLY what you will be doing if you follow the instructions.

Should you care? I think so because what will happen is the minute the elections are over the Unionists will form coalitions on councils all over the country to block Indy control of their councils and the SNP directive will mean there are insufficient other parties and Independents to join with the SNP elected to stop them. What does this mean? It means Unionist control of every council where the SNP fail to win over 50% of the seats under the PR system. Why would she do that? Power to her is all, there must be no other Independence Messiah but Nicola. So we get a rerun of the Scottish General Election where SNP 1 and 2 resulted in dozens of Unionist MSP’s being elected to Holyrood.

I really fear Nicola’s end plan, agreed with WHOEVER in the UK is pulling her strings is that Boris grants her the Section 30 and a new and final referendum is organised using the completely flawed franchise, with the Yes Side laboured with a leader who has no intention in winning and who has intentionally made no progress in setting out our positions on currency, pensions, Efta, Eu providing open goals for the Unionists to win again. That is the very real danger of the Nicola fan club, because they are completely blind to these very real risks.

We live in very dangerous times for the Independence cause.

BEAT THE CENSORS

Sadly some sites had given up on being pro Indy sites and have decided to become merely pro SNP sites where any criticism of the Party Leader or opposition to the latest policy extremes, results in censorship being applied. This, in the rather over optimistic belief that this will suppress public discussion on such topics. My regular readers have expertly worked out that by regularly sharing articles on this site defeats that censorship and makes it all rather pointless. I really do appreciate such support and free speech in Scotland is remaining unaffected by their juvenile censorship. Indeed it is has become a symptom of weakness and guilt. Quite encouraging really.

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