NOT BEEN A GOOD MONTH HAS IT?

NOT BEEN A GOOD MONTH HAS IT?

The first month of 2022 has been a shocker has it not?

It has been a month full of diversion. My problem is trying to work out what stories are diversion and trying to live with the fact that what is so bad that bombshell diversion stories are being promoted to hide those facts.

Let’s have a look at some of the stories this month. We have had Andrew being stripped of his HRH status. A story that will not upset a growing section of the electorate who have no time for the Royals to start with, but in what is intended to be a very special year for the elderly queen, a year undoubtably where the palace would have been hoping to rebuild popularity in the institution to ensure an orderly succession when the current monarch is replaced, it is a public relations nightmare. Worse for the palace it’s going to be a running sore, with the legal case in the USA going ahead, evidence being gathered and made public as the full case goes through various processes in advance of full trial. The question is can this all be avoided? The only way I can see that happening is if the complainant will settle for a big payoff.

I see several problems with that. A payoff in the public mind would be, irrespective of whatever conditions are attached, seen as an admission that wrongdoing occurred. Even if that could be arranged it would be hugely expensive. For certain the palace would want no further publicity surrounding the matter. Given that the media would pay many millions for the whole story, any settlement the palace offered would have to be larger and more attractive to the complainant for her to be expected to  surrender, the huge ongoing revenue stream, a small team of professional media advisors in the States could secure for her over many years.

While Andrew’s plight bubbled away, it was coinciding with the big Boris story, as pretty conclusive evidence emerged that while most countries were in full lockdown, with relatives barred from visiting dying relatives, very restrictive numbers allowed at subsequent funerals, Number 10 was awash with various parties. While singing in churches was banned, including at funerals, Number 10 was rocking to the strains of Happy Birthday being celebrated with dozens of participants. We still await the outcome of the “investigation”.

It would be fair to say “investigation” seems to be the wrong word to describe this process. Let me describe it to you and see what you think? Firstly the “ investigator” is appointed by the accused. More the “terms of reference” is also laid down by the accused. We know those terms of reference specifically exclude any judgement about guilt or responsibility, it is purely a job to establish the “facts” about what happened, not to create any trail of guilt about who was the instigator or any culpability. Those decisions are reserved for the “final arbiter” who handily can also be described as “the accused”. Just to finish off the farce it is the accused who determines what content within the “investigation” will be published and what will not. Government Ministers have been solid in their refusal to explain what the final document will look like in its published form, or give any assurances about the truth being even remotely recognisable. 

It highlights the duplicity of Westminster and it is incredible, as daily more and more evidence of the PM’s guilt is amassed, MP’s still cling to the “investigation” to avoid making the right decision. Does anybody believe in a normal working business that with the mountain of evidence building by the day that management would still be “playing for time” in the hope the anger would dissipate?. I am sure the “investigation” was created as a delaying tactic to allow the anger to subside. It has not worked. As more and more evidence has emerged, quite pathetic attempts by the PM’s supporters to play down the matter has ADDED to the anger and the outrage that would be bound to happen if he doesn’t resign. It could be electorally catastrophic  for the Tories. Boris’s days are coming to an end, nothing to get upset about that, other than the worry about which of his misfit colleagues will takeover. His ego is such that he may want to cling on but with elections coming in May, and the Tories trailing badly in the polls a great many Tories will be praying he goes now.

HOW CONVENIENT

As always however there is also a back up plan to get leaders off the hook. realising that the investigation period has not went well, the latest ruse is to get the police involved. A Met investigation will take months and wait for it, the Gray investigation will have to be suspended to allow the police to investigate. It seems Boris has learned from Nicola about how useful the police can be in political matters.It is a complete abuse of power but it is becoming a regular occurrence with the police being a willing patsy.

I worry he may also be hoping for a war in the UKRAINE to create a new diversion to his domestic problems. Wars have often been useful distractions when political survival is at stake. It is however a very dangerous game that can have unforeseen consequences.

I know enough about Russians from my travels in Eastern Europe to recognise that there are big differences in attitude between Russians and the West. Russians are a tough people, they are used to hardship, hunger and poverty much more that people in the West. Large areas of Russia are still run on a peasant based economy. That is not intended as a slur, it is just fact and it makes them very hardy and resilient. Many do not put the same value on life as their counterparts in the West. In my opinion that attitude would make them very difficult opponents in any conflict. So I hope Putin is sabre rattling rather than being serious about invading Ukraine.

I know all the people in the Baltic nations will be hoping for a strong reaction from NATO and the West if war does break out because if any invasion was successful they would be very concerned they might be next. Having said that the Baltic nations are both EU and NATO members and I don’t think Putin would want to upturn that apple cart. There would have to be a military response in that circumstance. Sanctions would have been shown to be inadequate.

I am unsure about any political response based on sanctions. Several EU members are heavily dependent on energy supplies, especially gas, from Russia. I don’t think it is coincidence that this crisis has emerged in the middle of winter and when there is an energy crisis with gas prices soaring. I think Putin sees this as an opportunity to win economic and political gain for Russia, hopefully short of full invasion.

So January 2022 sees a pile of problems emerging but none bigger than the one that is absent from your television screens. The growing adverse impacts of Brexit seems to be a story too far for the UK media, especially the BBC to cover.

The absolute folly of having a transport system that concentrates exports and imports all being centred on ports in the South of England is clear for all to see. Lorries parked for miles and miles, unable to access the ports, all delayed because of the Brexit regulations and bureaucracy is resulting in increasing shortages across the supply chain. Many businesses, small export businesses in particular, are giving up exporting because of the costs involved and the uncertainty involved for perishable goods where whole consignments can be lost due to delay. Scotland’s fish and shellfish industry being particularly adversely affected with huge drops in revenues being recorded.

The contrast with Independent Ireland could not be more stark. They have built forty four links with Europe while Scotland still does not have one.

So despite the problems for the palace and the likely removal of the current PM these problems are being used to disguise the huge damage Brexit is doing across the entire economy. The UK and Scottish Governments have had years to prepare for Brexit. Whereas they have completely failed to prepare across the Irish Sea Ireland were busy transferring their freight from going via the UK to creating their own direct routes. The lucky businesses in Northern Ireland, while still being part of the UK are now directing increasing amounts of their freight via Eire as well. It undoubtably moves future Irish reunification forward.

It doesn’t matter if it’s oil of gas, or wind and tidal, or exporting or importing Scotland is denied opportunity because we are not Independent, we are trapped in a failing union with an increasingly failing large neighbour.

I live for the day these arguments are promoted by the Scottish Government. To win Independence you need to make the arguments that convince people to support it. When did that last happen? HUGE numbers of elected MP’s and MSP’s…what do they do every week?

I am, as always

Yours for Scotland

BEAT THE CENSORS

Sadly some sites had given up on being pro Indy sites and have decided to become merely pro SNP sites where any criticism of the Party Leader or opposition to the latest policy extremes, results in censorship being applied. This, in the rather over optimistic belief that this will suppress public discussion on such topics. My regular readers have expertly worked out that by regularly sharing articles on this site defeats that censorship and makes it all rather pointless. I really do appreciate such support and free speech in Scotland is remaining unaffected by their juvenile censorship. Indeed it is i8has become a symptom of weakness and guilt. Quite encouraging really.

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