Plan B and Scotland on independence road from May
Given, no one seriously believes the UK Government will respect Scottish democracy and concede a Section 30 Order for a referendum on independence, and that no one at all in the Scottish Government can guarantee any sort of referendum whatsoever in the next Scottish Parliament term of 2021 to 2026 (let that sink in), a Plan B is quickly needing adoption.
We must move on rapidly from the mindset that the only valid ballot boxes for independence are from a referendum event and not an election event. We must demand that we ourselves and others respect democracy in all its forms.
Scotland is ready to vote for independence. The Brexit debacle will have every sensible, but now frustrated, exporter to EU, fish related or otherwise (and employees), who want to remain in business, supporting independence. The 18- in-a-row polls, showing support in the high 50%s, indicates an opportune moment.
Therefore, a mechanism has to be found, and given a referendum in my view will not happen in next Scottish Parliamentary term, we have a choice. That choice is either the elections of 2021 or 2026 for independence as they will be the only legal ballot box events for the Scottish people to move to independence. A Westminster election will not provide the majority in its chamber, quite obviously.
Those of us who support Plan B would actually prefer a referendum for Scottish independence, simply because that is the habit of thinking of so many. Changing thinking is not easy, but in the real world it is very unlikely to happen, no matter how many carrots are dangled, independence supporters have to grasp that.
Plan B does allow for both referendum options to be given a chance. A Sec30 and the Keatings-Scot-Parliament referendums, can be given time to prove they can definitely happen in the next parliament, but this should be established by 31st March. That deadline might actually be useful for achieving a Sec 30 referendum, as a Boris-Veto could not be wielded without consequence, the veto itself would be the trigger to make May’s election the plebiscite on independence. However, all this needs the Scottish Government to take the opportunity seriously and act accordingly. The Scottish Government must strategically wake up to the opportunity for independence that is available right now.
Finally, for the SNP there is nothing to lose by making the election about independence. Independence is more popular than the SNP and it would add votes if the election was about independence rather than only devolved issues. In worst case SNP still will be the biggest party after the election as they are now. However, the prize is in the probable case, Scotland would be on its way to independence with the legitimacy of its people and therefore the international community from this May.