THE BOTH VOTES SNP ARGUMENT

This article was first published in early February. I am reposting because it outlines what happened in 2016 in every region of Scotland. It was written long before The Alba Party was created but my belief is firmly that by voting for Alba on the list will deliver the Supermajority that will greatly Drive Scotland forward to Independence.

I am going to look at this closely based on what happened back in 2016 and what looks likely to happen in May 2021. I will look at it in each region of Scotland and express my view.

For those short of time however let me spell out what my final view is before I go into that detail. Who benefits best from that strategy? Who or what loses out?

My analysis is quite certain. The big winners if people do vote both votes SNP ARE SURPRISE, SURPRISE….THE SNP! But they are not the only winners a number of Unionist MSP’s will also be winners as well because in huge areas of Scotland, based on both past and current polling, there was never any possibility that the many hundreds of thousands of SNP list votes would ever help elect anyone OTHER than Unionist MP’s. People in these regions voting both votes SNP could take a match to the ballot paper and achieve the same effect.

Seems daft does it not, why would the SNP prefer an outcome that makes it easier for Unionists to be elected RATHER than other pro Independence MSP’s from other parties?

Well it is those words “from other pro Independence parties” that is the root of the problem. The SNP currently enjoy a virtual political monopoly on the topic of Independence. As long as that continues even when the SNP are behaving very badly and proving a huge disappointment many people are trapped into continuing to vote for them because they are reluctant to vote against Independence. At least that argument stands for the constituency first vote. I forecast it will not be anything like as effective on the list vote this time round. This is where Independence supporters will take the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the current New SNP and look for a new home where they can express serious disquiet about the current SNP but still vote in favour of Independence as part of that process. It also offers the happy prospect of electing more pro Indy MSP’s rather than Unionists by default.

This will be the first time this option will be available to voters. Every other previous leader of the SNP has managed their years in office without the creation of other pro Independence parties springing up all around them. More sensible members of the SNP might like to question why it has now happened under Nicola’s watch? Answers on a postcard.

Now it is not as simple as I have outlined, the mathematics are, but the alternative political choice has yet to be established. I am hopeful a clear option will emerge but as yet that is still to happen so for those hoping for a steer or a recommendation in this article I will have to disappoint. The Greens, the ISP ,AFI and Scotia Future have still to convince me that they are the best option but I will make my judgement nearer the time. I am sure I am not alone in that.

So let’s have a quick look round each region, examine what happened with both votes SNP last time and make a judgement based on the latest polling what is most likely to happen in May. Let’s start with my own region, the West of Scotland. But before that let’s look at what the National polls were saying immediately before the 2016 election and what they are saying now

Constituency Vote 2016

SNP 48%

Labour 22%

Tory 19%

Liberal 7%

Constituency Vote Now

SNP 54% +6

Tory 23% +4

Labour 16% -6

Liberal 5% -2

Regional Vote 2016

SNP 41.7%

Tory 22.9%

Labour 19.1%

Green 6.6%

Lib 5.2%

Regional Vote Latest poll

SNP 43% +1.3%

Tory 21% – 1.9%

Lab 18% -1.1%

Green 10% +3.4%

Lib 6% + 0.8%

What is clear from the above is that the level of SNP support is even higher than the last time so the SNP are likely to win more constituency seats than last time making it even LESS likely they can win many lists seats, or to be precise ANY in most regions.

WEST OF SCOTLAND

The 136,000 votes cast for the SNP on the list elected ZERO Msp’s

Just over 72,000 Labour list votes elected 3 Labour Msp’s

Just under 72000 Tory votes elected 3 Tory Msp’s

Just over 17000 Green votes elected 1 Green MSP.

The SNP RECOMMENDATION IS BOTH VOTES SNP AND LET SIX UNIONISTS BE ELECTED.

MY RECOMMENDATION IS DON’T BE SO STUPID.

MID SCOTLAND AND FIFE

128,000 SNP votes cast on the list elected ZERO SNP Msp’s

Just over 73,000 Tory votes elected 4 Tory MSP’s

Just over 51,000 Labour votes elected 2 Labour Msp’s

Just under 18000 Green votes elected 1 Green MSP.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION ARE YOU COMPLETELY MAD?

LOTHIANS

Just over 118,000 SNP VOTES elected ZERO SNP MSP’s.

Almost 75,000 Tory votes elected 3 Tory Msp’s

Almost 68,000 Labour votes elected 2 Labour Msp’s

Just over 34,000 Green votes elected 2 Green MSP’s

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION ONLY IF YOU LIKE ELECTING UNIONISTS.

GLASGOW

110,000 SNP list votes elected ZERO MSP’s.

Just over 59000 Labour votes elected 4 Labour MSP’s

Just under 30,000 Tory votes elected 2 Tory Msp’s

Just over 23,000 Green votes elected 1 Green MSP.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION DON’T BELIEVE A WORD OF IT!

CENTRAL SCOTLAND

Over 129,000 SNP list votes elected ZERO SNP Msp’s

Just over 67,000 Labour list votes elected 4 Labour Msp’s

Just over 43,000 Tory list votes elected 3 Tory MSP’s.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION YOU CAN’T BE SERIOUS!

NORTH EAST

137,000 SNP list votes elected ZERO SNP MSP’s.

Just under 86,000 Tory list votes elected 4 Tory Msp’s

Just under 39,000 Labour list votes elected 2 Labour Msp’s

Just over 18,000 Lib Dem list votes elected 1 Lib Dem MSP.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION YOU COULD BURN THEM. IT WOULD HAVE THE SAME IMPACT.

SOUTH SCOTLAND

Just over 120,000 SNP LIST VOTES ELECTED 3 SNP MSP’s

Just under 101,000 Tory list votes elected 2 Tory Msp’s

Just over 56,000 Labour list votes elected 2 Labour Msp’s

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION MAKES SENSE TO ME!

HIGHLAND AND ISLANDS

Just over 81,000 SNP list votes elected 1 SNP MSP’s

Just over 44,000 Tory list votes elected 3 Tory MSP’s.

Just under 23,000 Labour list votes elected 2 Labour MSP’s.

Just over 14,000 Green votes elected one Green MSP.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION TRICKY, ON CURRENT CONSTITUENCY POLLING NO!

So, as you can see above it is absolutely pointless using your list vote for the SNP in six out of the eight regions of Scotland. Those votes have no prospect of electing anyone from the SNP but they will make it easier for Tories or Labour MSP’s to be elected than if you used those votes for other pro Indy candidates.

In South Scotland it does make sense to use both votes SNP even though in current polling it looks as if only one SNP list MSP would be elected rather than the three that were in 2016.

Highland is the most difficult to judge. It is marginal. Current polling suggests that the SNP will win so many constituency seats in the region it makes it unlikely any list seat would be won , however the polls could change, so I would suggest leaving any decision to the last minute.

FLY IN THE OINTMENT TIME

Just advance notice that I have a story coming that I feel will discourage a lot of people from voting for any SNP candidate on the list. This is not just because the SNP NEC have fixed the selection lists to exclude more than 75% of Scots having any opportunity to win the first spot in every region, reserving the places for minorities. It will be coming along tomorrow.

The SNP are being very selfish with their both votes SNP strategy. They know that they are encouraging huge numbers of Scots to effectively burn their vote rather than encourage them to vote for other pro Indy candidates and help create a super pro Indy majority in the Parliament. In the past the strategy worked because people trusted the SNP leadership and message. Today, not so much.

Now everything I have wrote here is based on the current political position. That can change, however for it to change sufficiently in the six regions outlined above it would have to be a massive one, nevertheless I will update this article during the actual election campaign to replicate the actual political situation at that time.

I think this debate will develop between now and May and would forecast that if a front runner alternative emerges they could be pushing an open door. Opened by a SNP leadership that have lost their way and are on completely the wrong and most divisive agenda.

I am, as always

Yours for Scotland

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