BREAKS MY HEART

BREAKS MY HEART

How difficult is it to witness the war in Ukraine?

For my generation, a very lucky generation, it is harrowing. In my seventieth year I have reached that ripe old age without having to survive or experience a major war along the way. It’s been a very long time since anyone living in Scotland could write that.

There have been scares along the way, the Cuban Missile Crisis when the World was facing extinction as the two major superpower went head to head was definitely the closest but I grew up, as we all did, with the spectre of the Cold War which was a constant worry. The more so with Faslane being within thirty miles of my home.

Then the joyous day of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the advent of Gorbachev and the dawn of new freedom for millions in Eastern Europe. The rebirth of Independent countries and the excitement as those parts of Europe set out to rebuild their nations, to recover from decades of oppressive Soviet rule, to reverse the stagnation of their reliance on outdated industrial plant and policies.

I had the privilege, thanks to attending a football match, to be part of that rebuilding process in Estonia. I started a business there and was there every month, usually for around a week each time, sometimes longer, as they made the transition from working in a outdated work environment operating in a command, closed economy over to creating the hundreds of thousands of new jobs, competitive jobs, building products and services that had worldwide appeal.

People in those early days still worried about the Russians coming back. Indeed in 1993 they still had not left Tallinn, with Russian Troops still occupying the barracks, as they waited for Russia to find accommodation for them back within Russia. The Russians at the time were using energy supply as a political weapon. Nothing changed there. There were shortages with regular power failures as the Estonian Government were denied the energy required to keep power going twenty four hours a day. I remember the winter of 1994 being a very cold one as sectors within the city would be denied power on a rota. This in a country where minus 20-30 degrees temperatures were common. Old people survived by moving to a sector that had power, finding a friend or a cafe, purchasing a tea or coffee and making it last for hours, enjoying the heat.

Estonia had two priority policies on achieving Independence and the first few free Governments worked hard to achieve. The first was gaining membership of NATO and the second was gaining membership of the EU. Both these crucial memberships were achieved in 2004.

Like many of the previously controlled Soviet Republics the transformation in their economy and living standards has been spectacular. But it was not easy and nobody should think it was. They suffered a few hard years before the renewal got fully underway, particularly difficult for those on fixed incomes as pensions did not keep up with prices in those early years. Many survived by picking mushrooms in the forest then making and freezing meals, mainly soup, that kept them alive over the winter months.

Life, as described above, would have been similar in Ukraine. These are tough people, as are the Russians. They are used to not having sufficient food and heat, many areas of Russia still operate on a peasant economy basis but this makes the people very tough and resilient, capable of keeping life going in the most difficult conditions of hardship.

The other thing that struck me about the Russians I have met is that many, not all, do not put the same value on life, including their own, as we do. That to me is one characteristic that would make them very dangerous opponents in any conflict. We are not the toughest people in the prosperous ( in comparison) West. I think the vast majority would struggle living amidst the poverty conditions many in the previous Soviet Union had to contend with. The shock itself was be hugely disruptive and harming to both physical and mental health. .

So what do Estonians think about what is happening in Ukraine? They are appalled at what is happening. Not shocked, the distrust of Russia runs deep in these people. Not without justification. For them the Second World War lasted for more than fifty years and their country was occupied by a foreign power, two different ones, over that period.

They hope the Ukrainians can survive. They know that with a population of only 1.4 million people they, unlike the 44 million Ukrainians, could be swatted aside by mighty Russia if Putin so chose. They hope their membership of NATO will help protect them. It should, Article 5 makes clear an attack on any NATO member is an attack on them all. When dealing with a rational opponent that should be a sufficient deterrent. Estonia worries about Russia and Putin particular, possessing that rational capacity.

I think they hope the USA will react in the clever way. They know the Russian economy is vulnerable. In world terms it is small, with only oil and gas being a significant export ( accounting for around 40% GDP). If Biden was to reverse his environmental green policy which saw the cutting off of a major pipeline,( it could pump 830,000 gallons a day) lifted the restrictions on oil and gas operation he could quickly return the USA to a position of not only energy self sufficiency but also allow extensive export of oil and gas to Europe. He is currently buying millions of barrels from Russia ( Russia is the third largest oil supplier to the USA as I write) whereas under Trump they were selling many millions of barrels. That would hit Russia hard.

Like Ukraine Estonians would fight. Much of the country, even more than Ukraine is forested and the Estonian resistance, known as the Forest Boys, fought the Russian occupation for decades after the end of WW2. We of course heard nothing of this as the country was cut off within the Soviet Union but it is well documented here, in particular through a book authored by Mark Laar who is the former Prime Minister of Estonia.

I don’t think the Ukrainians can win a fixed battle over time with Russia but I do believe they can maintain a very effective, punishing and costly resistance to Russia both in the cities and the forests. I suspect Putin must be alarmed at the arming of the civilian population with both rifles and machine guns. Those arms may not be effective against tanks and aircraft but they could be deadly if used against an occupying force.

War, wherever it has taken place in recent times has been a messy business, witness Afghanistan as an example. Both the Russians and the Americans failed there, at very significant cost to both. I can only hope that the brave Ukrainians, men and women, now fighting for their homes and land have equal success in the months and years ahead.

I am, as always 

Yours for Scotland

BEAT THE CENSORS

Sadly some sites had given up on being pro Indy sites and have decided to become merely pro SNP sites where any criticism of the Party Leader or opposition to the latest policy extremes, results in censorship being applied. This, in the rather over optimistic belief that this will suppress public discussion on such topics. My regular readers have expertly worked out that by regularly sharing articles on this site defeats that censorship and makes it all rather pointless. I really do appreciate such support and free speech in Scotland is remaining unaffected by their juvenile censorship. Indeed it is has become a symptom of weakness and guilt. Quite encouraging really.

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