HERE IS AN INTERESTING TACTIC

A guest article from one of my favourite correspondents Breeks.

Further to some ongoing discussion, partly on Wings, there are clearly differing opinions about whether a Plebiscite General Election would be deemed a success if it secured 30 Westminster seats, or, as others insist with some passion, whether a 50%+1 share of the vote would be required. Rev Stu was of the opinion that 30 seats was worthless, with zero prospect of securing International recognition, but I disagree. 

For my part, I am firm in my convictions that winning 30 Westminster seats WOULD give us victory. A majority of Westminster seats is NOT worthless, because it is the threshold whereafter a majority of Scottish Westminster seats cannot be defeated by the minority of Scottish Westminster seats. SCOTLAND CAN THUS ACT! We can remove Westminster’s grip on Scottish sovereignty and issue sovereign edicts.

While I very much do count that as a victory, I also agree with Rev Stu that only a fool, or a very brave man, would use that benchmark as an instantaneous guillotine style execution for the Union. I also agree that neither the people, nor the international community, would go for it… So let’s not do that!

However, armed with an ADEQUATE democratic mandate, and a Westminster Parliamentary system’s majority supporting that mandate, there is no reason whatsoever why the Scottish MP’s could not declare it their intention to end the Treaty of Union by a date of their choosing, and thereby commit to ending the Union without actually ending it, (think along the lines of Article 50 declaring the UK’s formal intention to leave to Europe, lodged months in advance of the actual departure). 

Then, I would suggest our Westminster MP’s remove themselves from Westminster, and declare themselves a provisional Scottish government, or better still, merge with wider elements in our Community of the Realm, and come together as an interim Convention of the Estates defending Scotland’s Constitutional Rights and Sovereignty.

Let’s say, for example, Westminster could then be served with formal notice that Scotland considers the Treaty of Union had been breached, and the United Kingdom has been given (say) a period of two years grace, either to address and reverse the unconstitutional colonial infractions and save the 1707 Treaty of Union, or negotiate a NEW Treaty of Union, or, fail to reach a compromise and watch as the Treaty of Union permanently expires by default… and thereafter the final decision on the future of Scotland would be the subject of a Scottish ratification plebiscite. 

The Union would be over, but with it’s actual conclusion held in abeyance, and granted a stay of execution pending a negotiated settlement / conclusion.  I think it would be important to agree a stay of execution which “could” be rescinded, and Independence abandoned before the ratification plebiscite, if that was the course dictated by the negotiations. Thus there is a chance we might encourage Westminster, and more importantly Scottish Unionists, to engage and enter into talks constructively…. bearing in mind, the “Scottish Backstop”; – the Treaty of Union is already dead in the water if they don’t.

Naturally, those two years of negotiation would be fraught and difficult, (and demanding), but if our Scottish MP’s were removed from Westminster, the negotiations would be between Nations, National interim Governments, and literally be inter-national negotiations with no place for UK domestic law or UK Supreme Court interference, and no more Scotland Act holding any sway whatsoever. As for Scotland’s technical status, I am reminded of Scotland’s “holding pen status” mooted way back in 2016. Amongst other things, we are EFTA ready from day 1.

With Constitutional probity on our side, a pro Independence mandate in Westminster, (however technical a mandate it might be, – doesn’t actually matter, just so long as it has legitimacy), add two years of hard bargaining and treaty negotiations ahead, and then the whole package is to be finalised with a ratification plebiscite, BEFORE the Union is actually pronounced dead, I firmly believe Scotland could, and would, take International Opinion along with us. 

A Westminster 30 seat mandate IS the threshold we need, it literally is, but not to kill off the Union with a single shattering blow, WHICH NOBODY WANTS, but to blow the whistle and give Union two years to settle up amicably, make the case for ending or keeping the Treaty of Union, renegotiating a new Treaty of Union before the deadline expires, or if there’s no good faith to be found, for the Treaty of Union to be deemed breached and at an end by default, and irrespective of any mandate. 

In many essential ways, we quite literally shadow the protocols of the Brexit Referendum. The Brexit vote didn’t drop us out of Europe instantaneously, it just started the process, with a known end-game conclusion “IF” the negotiations failed and there was no interim change of heart. I say Scotland uses the Brexit process as our template for the last mile in our journey to Independence.

But that’s not all. Brexit isn’t the only precedent or template we have to follow. We have the Claim of Right.

Forgive the gross oversimplification, but in 1689 there was a Convention of the Estates convened which used what became known as the 1689 Claim of Right to put King James VII on Constitutional trial for allegedly abandoning the Scottish Throne, and subsequently removed him as King. 

I believe there is a parallel legitimacy behind convening another Convention of the Estates in 2023, (which might in time become known as the 2023 Claim of Right), only this time, the object of the exercise is not to put the Scottish King on Constitutional Trial, but to put the Treaty of Union on Constitutional trial, with special emphasis on Scotland’s unlawful Brexit Subjugation, and bring to an end to the litany of unconstitutional improprieties suffered against Scotland’s Constitutional Sovereignty. 

A “technical” majority of 30 Westminster seats, is the “servo mandate” which gets the big wheels moving. It is enough. 

The 30 seat mandate is also using Westminster’s First Past the Post system against themselves. If they’ve lived by First past the post, let them die by it. Why should Scotland cut them any slack and impose upon ourselves a George Cunningham style 50% rule? Let “their” lousy system bite them on the arse. Their “rigged” electoral system has disadvantaged Scotland for over 300 years and is part of the reason we’re leaving! Using it against them seems perfectly apt to me. 

Don’t forget too… We are looking at 30 Westminster seats as our threshold,  having returned 56 out 59 before now. They should have heeded the warning of what lay ahead. By all means, aim high for 59 seats out of 59, aim high for a 50%+ share of the vote… But just remember, Auld Scotland comes back to life with a 30 seat majority. THAT 30 seat majority is our critical threshold, not a 50% share of the vote. We save “that” threshold for the Ratification Plebiscite in 2025.

MY COMMENTS

There is little doubt new thinking is required. The dilution in a matter of weeks of the SNP proposals displays they are not interested in being serious about achieving Independence and are motivated only by securing their pay and pensions. They have become a huge disappointment to all but their blindest supporters.

I am, as always

YOURS FOR SCOTLAND.

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